New Lockdown Science

 

Recently a scientific study of Coronavirus lockdowns was released by Trend Macro and summarized by its CIO Donald Lushkin in the Wall Street Journal.

The study was based on total reported Coronavirus cases in each state, the lockdown measures in each state, and cellphone tracking data compiled by the University of Maryland in a “Social Distancing Index.” The study measured the effect of lockdowns and subsequent reopening on the spread of Coronavirus. The results are startling.

First, the study found that harsher lockdowns are associated with higher proportions of virus infestations. The five states with the most infections, New York, Michigan, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and the District of Columbia, also has the worst lockdowns. However, even when these states were excluded, the relationship between harsher lockdowns and higher infections remained. Similar results were found in a study of countries published in Britain in the Lancet. The conclusion is that harsh lockdowns were no more effective at stopping the virus than limited lockdowns, and may have had no effect on the spread of the virus.

The study then turned to the comparison of the states that reopened quickly and those that did not. Despite spikes in Arizona, Florida, and Texas the study found that the states liberalizing their lockdowns the most also had the lowest proportions of cases. Thus, continuation of harsh lockdowns is no more effective in preventing the spread of the virus then opening up rapidly.

As more and more evidence shows that harsh lockdowns are ineffective, some political leaders seem to have doubled down anyway. The poster child for this is New York City, whose 1.35 million unemployed numbered almost nine times as many as in Dallas-Fort Worth. Los Angles comes in second, with 628,000 unemployed, being over four times as many as Dallas-Fort Worth. High unemployment rates also exist in Chicago, Boston, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Washington DC, and Detroit as the result of harsh lockdowns.

Even with the drag of those badly managed cities, the August jobs report dropped to 8.4% unemployment. This is amazing progress in just four months, although you would not know it from the politicalized press. For comparison, it took the Obama-Biden Administration four years to lower the unemployment rate to 8.1% in the Great Recession of 2008.

Just imagine how many Americans could return to work if our cities and politicians followed the science and ended lockdowns.

As for us who work, the lesson is to not be paralyzed by fear and to trust God as the economy reopens. Get out and mix it up in the streets.

As Solomon said: “The sluggard says, “There is a lion in the road, a fierce lion roaming the streets.” Proverbs 26:13

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